African Railway Development and Intermodal Solutions: Outlook for African Railways with Modal Shift from Roads to Rail

The African Development Bank (AfDB) Transport Forum 2024, held in Abidjan from September 18-20, featured a pivotal panel discussion titled: African Railway Development and Intermodal Solutions – Outlook for African Railways with Modal Shift from Roads to Rail. Setting the scene for the discussion, Mr. Joan Miquel Vilardell, Partner for Africa and Europe at ALG, presented an analysis on Transforming the Railway Sector to Foster Traffic Migration from Roads to Rail in Africa. This article summarises Mr. Vilardell’s key insights and explores the challenges and potential opportunities for railway development across the continent.

Historical Overview of African Railways

To understand the current state of African railways, Mr. Vilardell provided an historical overview, identifying three key periods:

1. Colonial Period: During this period, which ended in the second or third quarter of the 20th century, the development of railway infrastructure in Africa was largely unplanned. The primary focus was on the extraction and export of natural resources to other continents. This led to a railway network that was not designed with the needs of African nations in mind.
2. Postcolonial Period: Following independence, African railways entered a period of decline. A lack of funding resulted in deteriorating infrastructure and rolling stock. In response, some countries implemented railway concessions. While a few, such as those in Cameroon and Madagascar, saw positive results, most of these concessions had negative outcomes, highlighting the difficulties of managing and maintaining the railway sector in the postcolonial era.
3. Recent Developments: In recent years, certain regions in Africa have made strides in railway development. For example, East Africa has been investing in Standard Gauge Railways (SGR), Morocco has successfully implemented high-speed trains, and Senegal has introduced commuter services like the Train Express Régional (TER) in Dakar. Despite these efforts, the overall railway sector in Africa remains significantly underdeveloped.

Current State of the Railway Sector in Africa

Mr. Vilardell emphasised that the railway infrastructure in Africa suffers from inadequate density and coverage compared to other regions around the world. The usage and ridership are notably lower, leading to an unimpressive modal share of rail transport:

• Only 2% of freight and 1% of passengers in Africa choose rail as their mode of transport.
• In contrast, regions like Europe see an 18% share for freight, Asia 43%, and North America 42%.

These figures highlight the significant gap between Africa and other continents in terms of railway transport utilisation. The underdevelopment of Africa’s railway network has resulted in over-reliance on road transport, increasing costs, congestion, and environmental impact.

Ambitious Mid-Term Plans: Transforming the Railways by 2040-2050

Despite the current state of underdevelopment, there are ambitious plans to transform Africa’s rail network in the mid-term, with significant targets set for 2040 and 2050. Several initiatives are currently underway at various levels:

1. Continental Level: The high-speed development plan aims to create a connected, efficient railway network across Africa.
2. Regional Level: Regional master plans, such as the ECOWAS railway master plan in West Africa, are guiding the development of railway corridors to enhance regional connectivity.
3. National Level: Many countries, including Morocco, Nigeria, Ghana, and Egypt, have announced substantial investments in railway infrastructure.

Mr. Vilardell noted that an estimated $1 trillion is required for infrastructure development alone. This amount does not include the additional costs of rolling stock, security facilities, and other supporting infrastructure. However, if these ambitious projects are realised, the results could be transformative. The study projects a twofold increase in the length of tracks by the mid-term, with a potential fourfold increase in the long term.

Future Prospects and Targets for Modal Shift

The projected expansion of railway infrastructure in Africa is expected to significantly boost its modal share in both freight and passenger transport. Currently, rail transport’s share ranges from 1.7% to 3% for freight. However, with the ongoing and planned developments, the target for the long term is to reach up to 21% in freight modal share, depending on the region. Southern Africa, in particular, is aiming for a 33% freight modal share. For passenger transport, the goal is to achieve between 6% and 13%.

Such improvements would mark a substantial success for Africa’s railway sector. However, achieving these targets requires considerable investment, particularly in rolling stock. As noted during the forum, there are concerns about whether there is sufficient global capacity to produce the required rolling stock to meet Africa’s needs alongside demands from other regions.

Bridging the Gaps: Creating an Enabling Environment

Mr. Vilardell highlighted that addressing the railway sector’s challenges is not solely a matter of financial investment. There is a need to create an enabling environment by activating key levels across various domains. ALG has identified seven critical areas that need to be addressed:

1. Institutional: Strengthening institutions responsible for railway development and operation.
2. Regulatory Harmonisation: Establishing harmonised regulations to promote regional interoperability.
3. Multimodality: Integrating rail with other modes of transport to ensure seamless intermodal solutions.
4. Capacity Building: Addressing the shortage of expertise and skills within the railway sector.
5. Maintenance and Sustainable Construction: Emphasising the importance of regular maintenance and sustainable construction practices.
6. Innovative Financing Mechanisms: Developing new financing strategies for both construction and operation.
7. Climate Financing: Leveraging the green benefits of railways to access climate financing.

Next Steps in the Study

ALG is now entering the next phase of its comprehensive study, which involves visiting 15 African countries to validate the initial hypotheses and gather further insights. These efforts will contribute to enriching the current analysis and refining the strategies for the railway sector’s transformation in Africa.

The AfDB Transport Forum 2024 underscored the significant potential and challenges facing Africa’s railway sector. The current state of underdevelopment demands urgent and coordinated efforts across the continent. However, the mid-term and long-term prospects look promising, with ambitious plans and substantial investments on the horizon. The key lies in not just infrastructure development but also in creating an enabling environment that will facilitate the shift from road to rail, ultimately boosting Africa’s economic growth and connectivity.

The railway sector in Africa stands at a pivotal moment. With the right strategies, investments, and commitment from stakeholders, Africa can transform its railway infrastructure and achieve a more sustainable, efficient, and integrated transport system. The journey towards that future has begun, and the forum in Abidjan marked a critical milestone in this ongoing endeavour.